Clockwise from top left: Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Saddness, Elvis, Women Talking, The Fabelmans, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, All Quiet on the Western Front, Everything Everywhere All At Once and Tar
Paramount Pictures / Courtesy Everett Collection; Neon / Courtesy Everett Collection; Warner Bros. / Courtesy Everett Collection; Orion Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection; Merie Weismiller Wallace / © Universal Pictures / Courtesy Everett Collection; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures / Courtesy Everett Collection; Jonathan Hession / © Searchlight Pictures / courtesy Everett Collection; Reiner Bajo /© Netflix /Courtesy of Everett Collection; A24 / Courtesy of Everett Collection; Key Features /Courtesy of Everett Collection
PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter‘s Awards Editor, Scott Feinbergreflects Feinberg’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. It arrives at this ranking based on consultations with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results from award ceremonies leading up to the Oscars, and historical of the Oscars ceremony itself.
Best Picture
Projected finish order
1. Everything everywhere all at once (Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang)
2. In the west, nothing is new (Malta Grunert)
3. Top Gun: Maverick (Jerry Bruckheimer, Tom Cruise, David Ellison and Christopher McQuarrie) — podcast (Bruckheimer)
4. Warehouse (Todd Field, Scott Lambert and Alexandra Milchan)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin & Martin McDonagh) — soon to be released podcast (McDonagh)
6. Elvis (Gail Berman, Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Pamela McCormick and Schuyler Weiss)
7. The Fabelmans (Kristie Macosko Krieger, Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg) — podcast (Spielberg)
8. triangle of sadness (Philippe Bober & Erik Hemmendorff)
9. Avatar: The Way of the Water (James Cameron and Jon Landau)
ten. women who talk (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand)
Best Director
1. Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything everywhere all at once)
2. Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) – podcast
3. Field Todd (Warehouse)
4. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) — podcast release soon
5. Ruben Ostlund (triangle of sadness)
Best actor
Projected finish order
1. Austin Butler (Elvis) — podcast release soon
2. Brendan Fraser (The whale) — podcast release soon
3. Colin Farrel (The Banshees of Inisherin) – podcast
4. Bill Nighy (Life)
5. Paul Mescal (After Sun)
Best Actress
Projected finish order
1. Cate Blanchet (Warehouse) — podcasts 1 and 2
2. Michelle Yeoh (Everything everywhere all at once) – podcast
3. Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
4. Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) – podcast
5. Ana de Armas (Blond)
Best Supporting Actor
Projected finish order
1. Ke Huy Quan (Everything everywhere all at once) – podcast
2. Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
3. Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
4. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
5. Brian Tyree Henry (Pavement)
Best Supporting Actress
Projected finish order
1. Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything everywhere all at once)
2. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
3. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) – podcast
4. Stephanie Hsu (Everything everywhere all at once) – podcast
5. Hong Chau (The whale)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Projected finish order
1. In the west, nothing is new (Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell)
2. women who talk (Sarah Polley)
3. Top Gun: Maverick (Ehren Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie and Eric Warren Singer)
4. Glass onion: a mystery at loggerheads (Rian Johnson)
5. Life (Kazuo Ishiguro) — podcast
Best Original Screenplay
Projected finish order
1. Everything everywhere all at once (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh) — podcast coming soon
3. Warehouse (Todd Field)
4. The Fabelmans (Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg) — podcast (Spielberg)
5. triangle of sadness (Ruben Ostlund)
Best Animated Film
Projected finish order
1. Pinocchio by Guillermo del Toro (Alex Bulkley, Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson & Gary Ungar) — podcast 1 and 2 (del Toro)
2. turn red (Lindsey Collins & Domee Shi)
3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Joel Crawford and Mark Swift)
4. Marcel the shod shell (Dean Fleischer Camp, Andrew Goldman, Elisabeth Holm, Caroline Kaplan and Paul Mezey)
5. The beast from the sea (Jed Snake and Chris Williams)
Best Documentary Feature
Projected finish order
1. Navalny (Diane Becker, Shane Boris, Melanie Miller, Odessa Rae and Daniel Roher)
2. fire of love (Shane Boris, Sara Dosa and Ina Fichman)
3. All the beauty and bloodshed (Howard Gertler, Nan Goldin, Yoni Golijov, John Lyons and Laura Poitras)
4. anything that breathes (Teddy Leifer, Aman Mann and Shaunak Sen)
5. A house made of shards (Monica Hellström & Simon Lereng Wilmont)
Best International Feature Film
Projected finish order
1. In the west, nothing is new (Germany) — Edward Berger
2. Close (Belgium) — Lukas Dhont
3. HEY (Poland) — Jerzy Skolimowski
4. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) — Santiago Miter
5. The quiet girl (Ireland) — Colm Barrett
Best Cinematography
Projected finish order
1. In the west, nothing is new (friend of James)
2. Elvis (Mandy Walker)
3. Warehouse (Florian Hoffmeister)
4. Empire of Light (Roger Deakins)
5. Bardo, false chronicle of a handful of truths (Darius Khonji)
Best Costume Design
Projected finish order
1. Elvis (Catherine Martin)
2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ruth E. Carter) — podcast
3. Everything everywhere all at once (Shirley Kurata)
4. Babylon (Marie Zophres)
5. Mrs. Harris goes to Paris (Jenny Beavan)
Best Film Editing
Projected finish order
1. Everything everywhere all at once (Paul Rogers)
2. Elvis (Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond)
3. Top Gun: Maverick (Eddie Hamilton)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (Mikkel EG Nielsen)
5. Warehouse (Monika Willi)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Projected finish order
1. The whale (Anne Marie Bradley, Judy Chin and Adrien Carotte)
2. Elvis (Jason Baird, Mark Coulier and Aldo Signoretti)
3. In the west, nothing is new (Linda Eisenhamerova & Heike Merker)
4. The Batman (Naomi Donne, Mike Fontaine and Mike Marino)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Camille Friend & Joel Harlow)
Best Original Score
Projected finish order
1. In the west, nothing is new (Volker Bertelmann)
2. Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
3. Everything everywhere all at once (Son Lux)
4. The Fabelmans (John Williams)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (Carter Burwell)
Best Original Song
Projected finish order
1. “Hold my hand” (Top Gun: Maverick) — BloodPop & Lady Gaga — podcast 1 and 2 (Gaga)
2. “Naatu Naatu” (RRR) — Chandrabose & MM Keeravaani
3. “Lift me up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) — Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna & Tems
4. “It’s a life” (Everything everywhere all at once) — David Byrne, Ryan Lott & Mitski — podcast (Byrne)
5. “Applause” (say it like a woman) — Diane Warren — podcasts 1, 2 and 3
Best Production Design
Projected finish order
1. Elvis (Bev Dunn, Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy)
2. Babylon (Anthony Carlino & Florence Martin)
3. In the west, nothing is new (Christian M. Goldbeck and Ernestine Hipper)
4. The Fabelmans (Rick Carter and Karen O’Hara)
5. Avatar: The Way of the Water (Dylan Cole, Vanessa Cole and Ben Procter)
best sound
Projected finish order
1. In the west, nothing is new (Lars Ginzel, Stefan Korte, Frank Kruse, Viktor Prášil & Markus Stemler)
2. Elvis (Michael Keller, David Lee, Andy Nelson and Wayne Pashley)
3. Top Gun: Maverick (Chris Burdon, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Mark Taylor and Mark Weingarten)
4. Avatar: The Way of the Water (Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Julian Howarth, Gary Summers and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle)
5. The Batman (William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson and Mark Weingarten)
Best Visual Effects
Projected finish order
1. Avatar: The Way of the Water (Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Joe Letteri and Eric Saindon)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Ryan Tudhope)
3. In the west, nothing is new (Markus Frank, Kamil Jafar, Viktor Müller and Frank Petzoid)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Dan Sudick and Chris White)
5. The Batman (Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, Dan Lemmon and Dominic Tuohy)
Best Animated Short
Projected finish order
1. The boy, the mole, the fox and the horse (Matthew Freud and Charlie Mackesy)
2. An Ostrich Told Me The World Is Fake And I Think I Believe It (Lachlan Pendragon)
3. My year of dicks (Sara Gunnarsdottir & Pamela Ribbon)
4. The flying sailor (Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby)
5. ice cream vendors (Bruno Caetano & João Gonzalez)
Best Documentary Short
Projected finish order
1. The Elephant Whisperers (Kartiki Gonsalves & Guneet Monga)
2. stranger at the door (Conall Jones and Joshua Seftel)
3. The Martha Mitchell Effect (Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison)
4. Grounding (Maxim Arbugaev & Evgenia Arbugaeva)
5. How do you measure a year? (Jay Rosenblatt)
Best Live Action Short
Projected finish order
1. An Irish goodbye (Tom Berkeley and Ross White)
2. The red suitcase (Cyrus Neshvad)
3. Students (Alfonso Cuarón & Alice Rohrwacher) — podcast 1 and 2 (Cuarón)
4. Night walk (Gaute Lid Larssen & Eirik Tveiten)
5. Ivalued (Rebecca Pruzan & Anders Walter)