I proceed with this little essay with some trepidation due to the topic I’ve chosen: the idea of margins of error in survey research. By “survey research” I mean such things as political polls, public opinion surveys, market research, and so on.
Right up front I can share my conclusion with you. The common understanding of margins of error is incorrect. If you decide not to read this mini-exploration in its entirety, just remember this: Whatever you thought or heard that margins of error in surveys mean, simply abandon those ideas. Replace them with a mental question mark and you’ll be fine.
I say this because the precise meaning of margins of error is stranger than fiction. After all, the concept does come from statistical theory, which can definitely be on the fantastical side. Read on and you will see.
